Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Developments in artificial intelligence may be the antidote for an aging population, but it takes time for these advancements to work themselves into the fabric of our nation’s businesses. The impact of new developments can persist in markets, so investors need to carefully discern what could be different this time around.
Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist
With a Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, a Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting, two very important inflation reports, and nearly $120 billion of new Treasury securities auctioned — last week was quite the week for markets. And while the Fed meeting was supposed to get top billing, it turned out the inflation data stole the show. In fact, at least for the Treasury market, it’s been the economic data that has had the largest impact on changing bond prices/yields. But with economic data released daily, that has meant the volatility in the Treasury market has been dizzying lately. So, what should bond investors do during this period of heightened volatility? Keep calm and clip bond coupons.
Dr. Quincy Krosby, PhD, Chief Global Strategist
Joshua Cline, Associate Analyst
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent victory in the national elections was muted at best. While he secured a rare third term in the nation’s highest office, his decisive legislative supermajority failed to materialize. Modi has made revitalizing the Indian economy and increasing foreign direct investment (FDI) a cornerstone of his pro-business platform. With markets adjusting to the unexpected outcome and new legislative circumstances, he and his party now pursue cementing the economic gains generated in his earlier terms, to ensure India continues making strides towards a modern capitalist economy that includes the wider populations and supports all Indians. Global markets will be monitoring the composition of the new cabinet and the introduction of the budget in July to ascertain that the Modi doctrine remains relevant, pro-business, and above all else, pro-India.
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
To say May was an eventful month for the market is an understatement. Investors navigated around the latter half of first-quarter earnings, a breakout to record highs for the broader market, elevated volatility across fixed income and currency markets, and a mixed bag of economic data — not to mention elevated political uncertainty stemming from the conviction of former President Donald Trump. Overall, markets shrugged off political uncertainty, bad economic data was mostly taken as good news for stocks by reviving hope for interest rate cuts, while good news helped write the goldilocks narrative of economic conditions being just right.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
The first quarter earnings season is largely in the books, and it was excellent. In fact, S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) would have been up double digits in the quarter if not for a big loss Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) absorbed in an acquisition. Even with that nearly three-point drag from the drugmaker, a nearly 7% increase in earnings — the biggest since the first quarter of 2022 — is impressive. Big tech strength was again the primary driver, and estimates impressively rose.
Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist
The post-pandemic economy is treating people very differently, creating a headache for central bankers. The extreme differences can often get traced back to living situations, as renters have a very different experience than homeowners. Since millions of homeowners refinanced mortgages to extremely low rates a few years ago, the economy is less sensitive to interest rate policy. In fact, the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium sponsored by the Kansas City Federal Reserve in August will debate the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy because of these post-COVID-19 dynamics, likely revealing important investment implications.
Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist
It continues to be a challenging environment for a lot of fixed income markets, especially higher quality markets. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) seemingly unlikely to lower interest rates until after the summer months (at the earliest), the “higher for longer” narrative has kept a lid on any sort of bond market rally. And while falling interest rates help provide price appreciation in this higher-for-longer environment, fixed income investors are likely better served by focusing on income opportunities. That’s where preferreds come in. With yields still elevated relative to history, we think preferred securities are an attractive option for income-oriented investors.
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
“Sell in May and Go Away” is one of the most widely used maxims on Wall Street. There is no shortage of financial media coverage on this topic as the calendar turns to May. However, this phrase may be more rhyme than reason, as stocks tend to trade higher during this period (especially more recently), subject to potentially elevated volatility. Of course, seasonality is one factor that could influence markets, but the economy and monetary policy are much bigger factors. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) pointing to higher-for-longer monetary policy last week (before Friday’s softer jobs report), we also explore how stocks perform during prolonged Fed pause periods.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Quincy Krosby, PhD, Chief Global Strategist
Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist
Last week was a pivotal one for markets, with the S&P 500 coming off a 3% weekly decline the week before. In terms of economic data, we got our first look at first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) as well as the March reading of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation measure — the core PCE deflator. If that wasn’t enough to digest, over 150 S&P 500 companies reported quarterly earnings last week, including the first batch of big tech names. Stocks passed the test, with the S&P 500 up 2.7% for the week, recapturing most of the prior week’s losses despite a mixed GDP report and a double-digit decline in shares of social media giant Meta (META) on April 25, after its results. Here we recap the week’s events and check in on sentiment.
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist
Volatility has come back into the market as the narrative shifted toward a higher-for-longer monetary policy backdrop. Signs of sticky inflation and a resilient economy, including a strong labor market, have underpinned the change in expectations. Yields have reacted by rerating significantly higher this month, while stocks have pulled back from overbought conditions. Technical damage is beginning to mount on the S&P 500, but its longer-term uptrend remains intact. The U.S. dollar has followed yields higher, creating headwinds for U.S. multinationals and currency stability headaches for other central banks.
Quincy Krosby, PhD, Chief Global Strategist
Joshua Cline, Associate Analyst
As the first quarter earnings season kicked off on April 12, expectations for the energy sector were decidedly negative. That low bar has tempted analysts to forecast a series of positive surprises as recent data releases for both the U.S. and China suggest a stronger economic underpinning, and the manufacturing sector appears to have bottomed in both countries. Oil demand — and prices — typically follow rising manufacturing and factory output, while rising consumer sentiment normally portends an increase in air travel, which also requires higher oil allocations.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
First quarter earnings season kicks off this week with several big banks reporting this Friday, including sector bellwether JPMorgan Chase (JPM). This quarter will seem quite similar to the fourth in terms of growth and drivers, with mega cap technology leading the way. But importantly, the point when the “493” will start contributing to overall profits is drawing closer (the 493 refers to the S&P 500 minus the seven mega cap technology stocks). Here we preview first quarter earnings season, which will benefit from an improving economic environment and continued strength in technology.
Dr. Quincy Krosby, PhD, Chief Global Strategist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Joshua Cline, Associate Analyst
The initial public offering (IPO) market allows institutional investors to incorporate the macroeconomic landscape with individual corporate earnings data — and future earnings forecasts — to ascertain a share price that will hold up to analyst and media scrutiny coupled with overall market dynamics. However, the IPO market has increasingly included allocations for a retail tranche designed to include clients of brokerage firms that receive shares during the issuance stage of the IPO process. So-called “friends” of the company going public also receive shares via Directed Share Programs (DSPs), but this typically lowers the amount of shares that are available to retail clients. For retail clients, the IPO market is far from a level playing field. The IPO process awards the largest portion of new shares to the institutional market by a wide margin. Here we provide an update on recent IPO activity, performance, and discuss why IPO activity matters for markets.
George Smith, CFA, CAIA, Portfolio Strategist
Craig Brown, Quantitative Strategist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist
The difference between strategic and tactical investment time horizons can be likened to the ebb and flow of tidal patterns in oceans. Strategic investing mirrors the steady rise and fall of the tides, focusing on long-term goals and expectations more stable akin to the predictable rhythm of oceans. On the other hand, investing in tactical time horizons resembles the dynamic nature of changing tides, responding to short-term market conditions like unpredictable surges and waves in the sea. Here we compare and contrast these two distinct processes and recap our recent strategic asset allocation change.
Jeffrey Roach, Ph.D., Chief Economist
Lawrence Gillum, CFA, Chief Fixed Income Strategist
It seems like we just can’t stop talking about central banks. And this week will be no different, with at least 15 central bank meetings planned, some more important than others, of course. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting will likely take top billing in the financial media, it’s the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting on Tuesday that could be the real game changer. With inflationary pressures still above target in Japan, the BOJ may finally be ready to take interest rates out of negative territory for the first time since 2016. If true, the era of free money will finally be over, which could have an impact on U.S. markets.
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist
Bullion broke new ground last week after rallying to a record high. Growing investor confidence for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut by this summer dragged down yields and the dollar, creating a tailwind for gold. The breakout above key resistance at $2,075 was also a major technical development, confirmed by bullish momentum that suggests the rally could continue. Global central bank demand has been another key catalyst and has shown no sign of slowing down, while a rebound in demand from gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could provide additional support for the yellow metal.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Fourth quarter earnings season is winding down with only about a dozen companies in the S&P 500 left to report. After a slow start mired by messy bank results early on, corporate America picked up the pace and ended up delivering results well ahead of expectations. The “Super Six” was part of the story — the Magnificent Seven minus Tesla (TSLA) — but resilient profit margins are also noteworthy. Here we review fourth quarter earnings season and share some thoughts on the earnings outlook for 2024.
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist
After a brief lull in 2023, buyback activity appears to be back this year. A resilient U.S. economy, easing inflation pressures, and expectations for an eventual shift to interest rate cuts have given corporate America confidence to boost authorized share repurchases. These companies have a history of outperforming the broader market and tend to have more exposure to momentum, value, and growth factors. While buybacks also reduce share count and help support earnings growth and valuations, they can also help limit downside volatility during periods of selling pressure.
Jeffrey Roach, PhD, Chief Economist
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.
Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist
A positive January has historically been a bullish sign for stocks. Yale Hirsch, creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so goes this year.’ Here, we assess the likelihood that this popular stock market adage delivers more gains for investors this year. The weight of the evidence leans toward yes, as we explain.
Paul King, CFP®, Registered Principal, LPL Financial, CA Insurance #0761042
Shannon Corpuz, Registered Representative, LPL Financial
In the event of a natural disaster and King Wealth Planning cannot be reached, please contact LPL’s service center directly: 800.558.7567
This communication is strictly intended for individuals residing in the states of AL, AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, ID, MA, MD, MI, MN, NM, NC, NY, NV, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, TX, UT, VA, and WA. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident outside these states.
A IMPORTANT CONSUMER INFORMATION A broker/dealer(BD), investment adviser (IA), representative may only transact business in a state if first registered, or is excluded or exempt from state broker/dealer, investment adviser, BD agent, or IA registration requirements, as appropriate. Follow-up, individualized responses to persons in a state by such a firm or individual that involve either effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without first complying with appropriate registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion.
For information concerning the licensing status or disciplinary history of a BD, IA, BD agent, or IA rep, a consumer should contact his or her state securities law administrator.
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC www.finra.org | www.sipc.com. Financial Planning offered through King Wealth Planning, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor and a separate entity.